October notebook: Earnest’s new direction + our San Fran resurrection

Daryl Smith, CFA, Head of Research (London)

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Greetings,

As a UK citizen, last month was a terrible time to visit California for FX reasons. For other reasons, it was totally worth it. Sat here in London, I now have fresh memories of sunny weather, heavenly beaches and stunning forests. Oh, and our San Francisco conference wasn’t bad either (more on that below).

Meanwhile, equity markets continue to look less sunny. 2022 has been a difficult year to date with concerns remaining over the war in Ukraine, elevated inflation and, of course, central bank tightening.

In our world, we’ve seen this play out via different datasets. Worldwide airline capacity is continuing its steady descent, global app revenue fell 5% YOY in 3Q22 and the majority of senior business executives around the world are expecting a recession in 2023.

At least there’s some potential good news in our corner of the financial world. Starting with…