Trump tariffs: Anticipating market impacts with alternative data
Julia Asri Meigh, Head of ESG and Macro Research (New York)
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- The study explores three analytical tools for tracking and anticipating the impacts of potential tariffs posed by US President Donald Trump on companies, industries and financial markets.
- The three analytical tools used by the authors offer insights into labour market dynamics, B2B relationships/connections and earnings call transcripts.
- Using these three tools, the study found that:
- During Trump’s first term, companies with above-median US headcount and below-median US revenue outperformed their peers by more than 11%.
- In the same period, tariff-targeted firms exhibited a 17% change in supply chain turbulence (5% more than non-target peers).