Predicting gold prices with alternative data
Lucy Gao, Research Analyst (Shanghai)
Movements in the price of gold often defy conventional analysis. Weddings in India, goldbugs in Montana and central bankers in China all influence the price of the yellow metal. With gold surging to record highs in recent months, we highlight alternative datasets that can provide insights into the gold market.
Players in the gold market have changed significantly during the past few decades. Understanding the role of these players and the factors that affect their demand is key. Below, we look at some of the main drivers of gold trading activity and datasets that can be used to track the market.
CENTRAL BANKS
While gold is no longer the basis of international trade and no major currencies are linked to it, central bank holdings are still significant. As the chart above shows, a notable recent shift saw central banks become net buyers of gold in 2010 – led by China.